Patsy’s 2010 Oscar Predictions

Every movie fan, critic and bookmaker has been debating who will be the big winners at Sunday night’s Academy Awards.  It’s Cameron v Bigelow, Avatar v Hurt Locker, and Meryl vs Sandra. It’s not what one would dub a vintage year for film, but there’s been a few little gems and some of the Oscar wins are too close to call. Let’s see if Patsy Stone can fare any better this year than last:

Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges is the front runner here for his turn in Crazy Heart and at this point should be doing the rounds with a wheelbarrow given the number of awards he’s won for his performance as Bad Blake. While in another year you would gift that statue to any of the four other contenders – there has been a lot of noise about Colin Firth and Jeremy Renner in particular, Bridges has taken the spoils at almost every major awards ceremony and not a single contender is close on his heels. The term “shoe-in” is an understatement.
Patsy’s Prediction: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress:
I’ve a feeling there could an upset in this category –  Meryl Streep‘s  performance as Julia Child was faultless. Then again the Academy might just stick with being predictable this year and go with Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side. Bullock who is one of three first time nominees is Hollywood’s Prom Queen this year and thanks to popularity may just shade it. But if Streep picks up Oscar No: 3, remember I did say she might. Personally if I had to pick, it’d be between Streep and Gabourey Sidibe.
Patsy’s Prediction: Probably Sandra.  But maybe Meryl.

Best Supporting Actor:
In the week leading up to the Oscars, there has been talk of the dark horses in this catagory – namely Matt Damon for Invictus and Woody Harrelson in The Messenger. But logic suggest this one is Inglorious Basterds Christoph Waltz‘s for the taking on Sunday night…basically because he’s won everything. Despite the dark horses, Waltz has a clear lead on other contenders.
Patsy’s Prediction: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress:
Another award that’s a shoe-in for one contender, yet at the same time it’s hard to overlook the others. Anna Kendrick proved her acting chops in Up In The Air and would be an interesting choice…but then along came Precious and Mo’Nique’s devastating performance as an abusive mother. Maggie Gyllenhaal is a possibility but ultimately faces too stiff a competition. This one, deservedly, will go to Mo’Nique.
Patsy’s Prediction: Mo’Nique

Best Director:
The one every movie buff has been debating since awards season kicked off. Will it go to James Cameron for the revolutionary Avatar – or his ex wife Katheryn Bigelow, for powerful war film The Hurt Locker? Since Katheryn’s win would make her the first female ever to win this award, methinks that factor will sway it for the Academy – but it’ll be neck and neck.
Patsy’s Prediction: Katheryn Bigelow

Best Picture:
For the first time there is 10 picture nominations in this category. Despite excellent competition it might as well have been between 2 – it’s Avatar vs The Hurt Locker. The latter has picked up momentum on the awards circuit of late and Best Film along with Best Director are the strongest categories for a win. Even the bookies can’t predict this one so I’m a bit stumped. But if Bigelow gets best director, maybe they might hand this one to James Cameron for Avatar.
Patsy’s Prediction: Avatar

Best Original Screenplay:
Luckily for The Hurt Locker it’s not against Up In The Air here so it stands a decent chance of bringing this one home. But the wickedly delightful Basterds screenplay has more than a possibility of taking this away from Hurt Locker and I wouldn’t bat a false eyelash if it did.
Patsy’s Prediction: What the hell…Inglorious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Without a doubt this one should really go to Reitman and Turner’s Up In The Air. But I need to stretch this to more than one line so considering the other nominees Nick Hornby’s An Education would be a good choice too.
Patsy’s Prediction: Up in the Air

Best Animated Feature:
Before I saw Up I would have thought Coraline had it in the bag. But it seems critics loved it, movie goers and voters it seems: not so much. Pixar pretty much own this category and Up is one of their best animated films for a long while so it’s a no-brainer. The Fantastic Mr. Fox has the slightest of chances here too.
Patsy’s Prediction: Up

Best Foreign Film:
There has been a lot of talk about Un Prophete among the critics and rightly so, after it picked up a host of awards across Europe. However Das Weisse Band won the Palm D’or and a Golden Globe – based on win history you could see Un Prophete losing out to it’s rival nominee.
Patsy’s Prediction: Das Weisse Band

Best Original Song:
I don’t know about you lot, but I hate when they do the film songs bit. It’s like an upgraded version of Eurovision sans Wogan. But every now and then there’s a gem or two in this category and T-Bone Burnett and Ryan Bingham’s The Weary Kind (Crazy Heart) is indeed a gem. Randy Newman has 2 nominations here but I’ll lose the will to live if the Academy give it to him.
Patsy’s Prediction: The Weary Kind (Crazy Heart)

Best Original Score:
Michael Giacchino’s Up seems to be the score in the lead here with a rake of wins. Avatar is running close behind – it is James Horner after all, and the man has shamefully only won 2 Oscars. But I don’t expect surprises in this category and Avatar will clean up elsewhere.
Patsy’s Predictions: Up (Michael Giacchino)

Best Visual Effects:
There are only three nominees here and one of ’em is Avatar (The other two are District Nine and Star Trek). So…..
Patsy’s Predictions: Avatar

Best Cinematography:
This will be an interesting one, even for those of you who watch only to see what actor/film/director wins what. Das Weisse Band has been heralded as the one that should win by critics and cinematographers alike – in fact it recently won an award from the American Society of Cinematographers….but then there’s Avatar. While undoubtedly the latter film will trounce others in most awards it faces a tougher competition ina category like this and it’ll be interesting to see what way Academy voters swing.
Patsy’s Prediction: Avatar (but if the Academy is feeling a mite rebellious…Das Weisse Band)

Best Editing:
This is yet another 2 horse race between The Hurt Locker and Avatar and given that the former feature picked up a prestigious ACE for editing, I’m inclined to believe Hurt’s Chris Innis and Bob Murawsk will need to make room for Oscar on their respective mantelpieces.
Patsy’s Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Best Art Direction:
Avatar has made awards like Art Direction self-guaranteed- and there’s few films that can touch it. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus is another visually stunning film but doesn’t stand a chance against Cameron’s masterpiece.
Patsy’s Prediction: Avatar

Best Costume Design:
Unless there is a particularly strong contender, it seems period flicks always win this one. And what do you know – we have a period flick! Love the elegant style of Coco Before Chanel but The Young Victoria will leave it in the dust.
Patsy’s Prediction: The Young Victoria

Best Make-Up:
Another short category with only three nominees – Il Divo, Star Trek and The Young Victoria. As the English period feature was the only one to win a major (BAFTA) for Make-Up it’ll most likely pick up the Oscar here too.
Patsy’s Prediction: The Young Victoria

Best Sound Mixing:
Avatar has already won a CAS and a Golden Reel for Sound Mixing and Editing and there’s really no one stronger than it this year.
Patsy’s Prediction: Avatar

Best Sound Editing:
It’s not always the case that the same film will win both Sound Mixing and Editing but Avatar will likely be an exception to that rule.
Patsy’s Predictions: Once again…Avatar

Best Short Film (Animated):
I’m slightly biased with this one: I really want Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty to win, it’s Irish and a quirky little short with stunning visuals but it’s up against Nick Park’s Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death (great title). And as Nick Park is the Daddy of animated shorts the other nominees stand little chance against him, even though some of them such as Logorama is extremely enjoyable.
Patsy’s Predictions: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Best Short Film (Live Action):
I’ll be straight up here: Not seen a single one of these short films. But I have been looking at how they’ve done at other awards ceremonies and who the critics think might win the award and it’s all about Kavi, a tale of a young boy forced into slave labour in India. Sounds like a riot….The Door is another short with more than a chance in this category and I’ve heard nothing but good about it.
Patsy’s Prediction: Maybe it’s wrong that “child with dreams+India+forced into indecent labour” screams SLUMDOG!!! to me and therefore shouldn’t win but given I haven’t seen the film that’s my initial take on what I’ve heard. Kavi will probably win but The Door sounds like a far more interesting choice.

Best Documentary (Short):
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant is a truly fascinating and insightful documentary given the current global economic climate and has garnered fantastic reviews thus far. However China’s Unnatural Disaster, the story of the 2008 earthquake in China is powerful, harrowing and surely brought a tear to the eye of the most hard hearted viewer. The Last Campaign is another nominee that provoked great debate on the subject of assisted suicide, but considering the subject matter has a political backdrop and the Academy’s hesitance to “go there” it’ll likely lose out.
Patsy’s Predictions: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

Best Documentary (Feature):
The Most Dangerous Man In America
carries some clout here with it’s win at the National Board of Review. But I’m wary to back a win for any film up against one that’s sad with kids/dolphins in it – and  Which Way Home, a story of Mexican child migrants is a fellow contender. Speaking of dolphins, movie buffs are calling this award for The Cove, which has 23 award wins this season and remains the most honoured documentary of 2009/2010 – I think they might be right on the money.
Patsy’s Prediction: The Cove


~ by patsystone on March 6, 2010.

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